Russia winning war against Europe, one election at a time

Opinion: Postwar Austria was for decades a model of political stability to the point of boredom. The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) dominated the political landscape. They often governed together in grand coalitions, creating a predictable, if not always dynamic, political environment.
That era of stability, however, began to unravel in the 1990s when the late Jörg Haider transformed the Freedom Party (FPÖ) into an extreme right populist force.
Now, with the results of Sunday’s election, Austria’s political fragmentation is complete. It creates challenges for domestic governance and European unity. The FPÖ, these days led by the controversial Herbert Kickl, for the first time emerged as the largest party, securing 29.2 percent of the vote.
The ÖVP, under Chancellor Karl Nehammer, came in second on 26.5 percent, its support collapsing by 11 points since the last election. The SPÖ, led by the leftist Andreas Babler, secured just 21 percent – its worst result. The Greens and the liberal NEOS rounded out the parliament with 8 percent and 9 percent respectively.
The FPÖ’s current success is not without precedent. In 1999, under Haider’s charismatic leadership, the party shocked the political establishment when it received 26.9 percent of the vote, coming second to the SPÖ in the national election. This led to a coalition government with the ÖVP in 2000. The coalition was regarded as so dangerous it prompted diplomatic sanctions from other EU member states.
Controversies surrounding the FPÖ have been a recurring theme in Austrian politics ever since. In 2005, Haider split from the party to form the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ). Though the BZÖ gradually faded into obscurity after Haider’s death, the FPÖ then regained strength under Heinz-Christian Strache, and became more radicalised.
By 2017, the party had once again entered a coalition government with the ÖVP. But it collapsed spectacularly in 2019 over the ‘Ibiza scandal’. Secret footage filmed on the Spanish island showed Strache apparently offering government contracts to a woman he believed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch, in exchange for campaign support. This not only led to Strache’s resignation and snap elections but also highlighted the FPÖ’s openness to dealings with Russia.
In the face of these setbacks, the FPÖ has proven remarkably resilient. Not least because its current leader, Herbert Kickl, successfully capitalises on growing economic anxieties and anti-immigration sentiment.
Kickl, who has led the FPÖ since 2021, was interior minister in the previous ÖVP-FPÖ coalition from 2017 to 2019. During his tenure, he pushed for stricter immigration policies and controversially ordered a raid on Austria’s own intelligence service.
Kickl’s rhetoric is often even more extreme than his predecessors’. He has referred to asylum seekers as “invaders” and called for “fortress Europe” to keep migrants out.
That Austria, like much of Europe, has grappled with rising inflation and cost of living pressures, has further helped the FPÖ to make its case as the self-proclaimed advocate of ordinary Austrians.
Austria’s economic challenges, combined with concerns about immigration and cultural identity, have thus created fertile ground for the FPÖ’s populist message. It has campaigned against the perceived threats from immigration, globalisation and the European Union.
But it is the FPÖ’s pro-Russian stance that is particularly concerning. At a time when Europe faces its gravest security crisis since the Cold War, the prospect of yet another Kremlin-friendly government in the EU (alongside Hungary) is deeply troubling.
Kickl has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia and criticised support for Ukraine. The party’s position was starkly illustrated when it walked out of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to the Austrian parliament. It clearly showed on whose side the FPÖ stands.
There is a pattern to the European far right’s closeness to Russia. In Germany, media just revealed leaked materials from a Russian-based disinformation company, the Moscow-based Social Design Agency. It exposed its goals in influencing German politics, including pushing the far-right Alternative for Germany to 20 percent. It would not be a surprise if similar Russian agencies were playing a comparable role in Austrian politics.
Still, the FPÖ’s victory does not guarantee Kickl the chancellorship just yet. Austria’s proportional representation system necessitates coalition-building, and herein lies the crux of the problem. The traditional parties have vowed not to work with Kickl – and for good reasons. But forming a coalition without him is hard.
The fragmented result presents a complex puzzle of coalition possibilities. A ‘grand coalition’ between the ÖVP and SPÖ, once the default option, now only has a majority of a single seat, thus making it potentially too unstable to even try. Meanwhile, a centre-left alliance of SPÖ, Greens, and NEOS would fall short of a majority. The only practically viable two-party coalition would involve the FPÖ – a prospect the other parties want to avoid.
The most likely outcome may therefore be a fragile three-party coalition, possibly between the ÖVP, SPÖ, and either the Greens or NEOS. Such an arrangement would span the ideological spectrum, from conservative to progressive, making coherent policymaking exceptionally challenging. In turn, this would help the FPÖ’s populism in the long run.
As coalition negotiations begin, Austria now faces weeks, if not months, of political uncertainty. The prospect of a far-right, pro-Russian party leading another European government is a real threat.
As such, the FPÖ’s success in Austria is part of a wider, deeply concerning trend across Europe. Vladimir Putin’s influence is steadily growing, with pro-Russian parties gaining ground in several EU member states.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has long-standing ties to the Kremlin. Germany’s AfD, as we have seen, is a target for Russian influence operations. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán has essentially become Putin’s man within the EU.
By some estimates, nearly a third of the members of the European Parliament now show sympathies for Russia.
Austria’s election result is therefore not an isolated incident, just another piece in Putin’s puzzle as he seeks to control European politics and shape narratives from within.
The growing network of pro-Russian parties poses a significant threat to Europe. It undermines the continent’s ability to respond decisively to Russian aggression, not just in Ukraine but in European politics more generally. And that is the most sobering takeaway from the Austrian election. Through a combination of disinformation campaigns and support for sympathetic parties, Russia is winning its war against Europe, one election at a time.