The Times of Troy: USC keeps making the same mistakes under Lincoln Riley

Hello, and welcome back to The Times of Troy. I’m Ryan Kartje, your USC beat writer at the L.A. Times, coming to you once again from midair of the final leg of USC’s five-week, nearly 14,000-mile, cross-country nightmare tour through the Big Ten, the last stop of which was, by far, the most inexplicable yet for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans.
After suffering a 29-28 defeat Saturday at Maryland, a team that had yet to win in the Big Ten this year, USC has lost four of five, despite having led in the fourth quarter in each of those four losses. Its season is effectively lost. Even a bowl game, at this point, may be expecting too much.
When this season began, we knew there were a lot of unknown variables that would determine where USC was headed. There’s a reason predictions ranged wildly from six wins to a playoff bid. We didn’t know what to expect from the new defense or the new quarterback. We had our doubts about the offensive and defensive lines. What we didn’t anticipate was Riley — and his inability to guide the team late in games — becoming USC’s most volatile variable of all.
It was again Saturday. USC was once again well-positioned for a win, still leading Maryland by six points, with just two minutes remaining. The Trojans faced fourth and one. A 41-yard field goal would end it. A first down probably would too. On the sideline, Riley toiled between the two options, ultimately opting for the field goal.
He chose wrong. Again. Maryland blocked the kick with ease. And while it’s easy to criticize that decision in hindsight — especially when Woody Marks had rushed for plus yards on all but two of his carries Saturday — the most concerning part came after.
Because when the Trojans took the field to defend the lead, it felt like a foregone conclusion that the defense would blow it. It didn’t matter that USC led by six. It didn’t matter that the defense was clearly better than in years past under Riley. This was a team that didn’t believe it would make the stop. Any confidence USC had brought into this season had so clearly cratered over the course of the last month that Maryland marched down the field with little resistance, completing five straight passes. It took the Terrapins less than a minute to punch in the go-ahead score.
“Those are the mistakes you can’t make on the road,” Riley said, at a loss.
Except, USC keeps making those mistakes. The Trojans have blown a 14-point lead in five of Riley’s 12 losses as coach. They’re just the second team in two decades to lead in every fourth quarter, but somehow have a losing record. Those losses have a way of getting in players’ heads.
“It may be in some,” Riley admitted, when I asked if that was the case.
“I don’t feel a lack of confidence from the guys as a whole, but I know there are some frustrations. We’re all human. These kids are human. It’s like, when you go through as many of these as we had and you’re so agonizingly close to these — yeah, it hurts. And I’m sure it affects all of them in different ways.”
It’s up to Riley to figure that out. He’s paid more than $10 million per year — the fourth-most of any coach in college football — to figure that out. USC and its donors have invested hundreds of millions for him to figure that out.
But the reality is there aren’t many obvious answers to what ails USC at the moment. Even as fans plead for Riley’s firing, it’s just simply not realistic to expect USC to make a change, with a massive buyout in place and millions upon millions invested elsewhere in Riley’s operation. President Carol Folt has put the full weight of her office behind making this work, even getting behind a $200-million football performance center, when the school has plenty of other things to pay for.
USC, quite literally, can’t afford to cut bait now, in Year 3.
So what can USC do? Riley could always choose to make a change at quarterback, after an inconsistent month for Miller Moss. But after that, there’s no going back. Riley already frustrated Moss in 2022, when he chose not to put him in over an injured Caleb Williams during the Pac-12 title game. Where do you think that relationship — and Moss’ confidence — would go after he’s benched?
I liked what I saw out of Jayden Maiava during camp. But while his ceiling is enticing, we have no idea where his floor is in USC’s offense. Is Riley willing to take that risk? And would it even make much of a difference?
I don’t think he will make that change. Not yet, at least. But something must change at USC. And Riley, now under-.500 for the first time in his career, would be best suited looking inward first.
—Don’t blame USC’s offensive line for this loss. After a bit of a rocky start, I thought the Trojans’ much-maligned front had one of their steadier performances against Maryland, even if the quarterback play didn’t reflect that USC allowed nine pressures on 52 dropbacks, many of which came in the first half, and only two of those came against the Trojans’ starting tackles, who had been the weak link up front. Maybe Josh Henson, USC’s offensive line coach, is figuring something out.
—Remember when USC’s secondary looked like the deepest group on the defense? Well, we can say after eight weeks that that’s not the case. Playing down one starting corner, Jacobe Covington, USC allowed Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. to throw for a career-high 373 yards, 124 of which came in the fourth quarter. None of USC’s corners escaped unscathed. Jaylin Smith, the other starter, allowed five catches for 91 yards. Prophet Brown and DeCarlos Nicholson gave up a combined six receptions, and John Humphrey, who played the most in Covington’s absence, committed a crushing pass interference penalty on Maryland’s go-ahead drive. Oof.
—D’Anton Lynn may have found a way to pressure the quarterback. After tallying just six sacks in six weeks, USC’s defense finally managed to get consistent pressure. The key? Blitzing from the secondary. That’s not exactly a new facet of Lynn’s defense, but Lynn dialed up more corner and safety blitzes than normal on Saturday, and it seemed to actually work. Safety Kamari Ramsey had six pass rush snaps. Nickel corner Greedy Vance Jr. had five, and Akili Arnold and Jaylin Smith combined for three more. Expect more of that going forward; though, maybe not against Rutgers, which isn’t much of a threat through the air.
Indiana (-7.5) vs. Washington
We took a hiatus last week, after suffering our first loss of the season, but at 3-1, we’re going back to what worked for us in our perfect start: Betting on the Big Ten’s most underrated team.
Indiana is still being disrespected, despite never having trailed this season. Here’s hoping that continues against Washington, a team that can’t keep up with the Hoosiers.
A hat tip to Daniel Gallen — a friend, Maryland grad and reporter at 247 Sports — who told me about Marathon Deli, a perfect campus hole-in-the-wall that has been around forever and, like any self-respecting college spot, is open until 3 a.m. on Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Just enough time to grab a delicious gyro, their specialty, after leaving the press box late.
Statues have a bit of a checkered recent history in the Big Ten … See: Paterno, Joe or Schembechler, Bo.
But the Lincoln Memorial remains in a class of its own, the GOAT of all American monuments. Many years ago, it was in front of Honest Abe that I told my now-wife that I loved her for the first time. So I made sure to pay homage on this trip. Turns out, it’s just as magnificent as I remember.
His defiance gone, Lincoln Riley struggles to explain USC’s latest devastating loss
With Eric Gentry and Anthony Lucas out, USC’s defense must rely on its freshmen
Miller Moss remains USC’s QB. But USC is struggling to air it out more than usual
After ‘a series of concussions,’ USC linebacker Eric Gentry to miss rest of season
USC defensive end Anthony Lucas is out for the season
Are Lincoln Riley and DeShaun Foster feeling the heat yet?
One of the funniest shows of the past decade returns for its final season tonight, and I will stop at nothing before everyone understands the greatness of “What We Do In The Shadows.” From the brilliant mind of Taika Waititi, the show follows a house of vampires just trying to live their vampire lives in modern-day Staten Island. If you haven’t seen it, go back and start bingeing the first five seasons now.